Mozilla

Foresight: Scenario Planning and Futures Thinking

CONTEXT

Mozilla’s market penetration is ~12% with the remaining overwhelmingly going to Google.

The 1st is Google.

Web literacy and digital inclusion are critical to Mozilla’s goal of building an open and accessible internet.

THE CHALLENGE

How can Mozilla predict the adoption, usage and social consequences of Mixed Reality tools?

Mozilla is interested in understanding how MR adoption (habits, usage, norms and regulations) will evolve over the next decade.

APPROACH

i) what MR adoption could look like for different socio-economic and geographically dispersed populations

ii) how marginal and at-risk populations are likely to benefit from MR

iii) what scenarios could result in MR being perceived as invasive.

Online Privacy & Security
Open Innovation
Decentralization
Web Literacy
Digital Inclusion

Signals & Drivers

Signals:

Drivers:

Together, signals and drivers can be used like an compass and azimuth. Signals are the points on the horizon, and drivers are the path you can chart backwards in time. With this line of trajectory it becomes possible to create future scenarios assuming these drivers continue.

Given a driver, and signal (evidence), what are conceivable futures we might take into account.

Critical Uncertainties

Note…

2x2s

X-axis: Level of privacy(highly protected individual vs not protected)/attitude/emotions about privacy, Y-axis: Regulation (High/Low)
X-axis: Trust around data-sharing (high/low), Y-axis: Adoption (high/low)
X-axis: Adoption of MR, Y-axis: Economics of MR (high/low cost)
X-axis: Information Filtering, Y-axis: Technology protection (Open-source vs. IP) -- This is a fascinating one Andres can tell you all more about

The Pre-Mortem Analysis

Create a detailed press release that announced an detrimental outcome
Identify the signals of today that validate the possibility of the future condition
Define mitigating actions that can safeguard against the future state
Implement

“Foresight is fun”

— yoda

Alternative Futures Method

…your attention as a resource (this is the industry)

Our plan is to explore the following Alternative Futures in the context of Mozilla's 10-Principles.

Growth: Internet companies battle for audiences while continuing to maximize eyeballs. An individual’s internet is shaped by for-profit corporations or through protective mediums such as Mozilla. The privacy battle has created an us vs. them mentality. On one side, shameless data openness who are prayed upon by corporations and on the other side those who protect their data fiercely, but who also suffer barriers to efficient use of the internet.

Constrained: Actively take people offline with alternative “browsing” techniques… IoT, AR, In-Home etc. Privacy is held with the utmost regard, individuals understand why their technology functions in certain ways, while onlookers have no idea how or why… nor are they bothered. Users are well versed in privacy and data using common dashboards, which allow for transparency, value creation, and integration preferences and implications. (Mozilla provides this technology… Personal Data APIs).

Collapse: Siloed internets flourish as a reaction to the People’s Internet of China. Internets become as biased as news channels. Channels have total control over their viewers access. In theory, users have the freedom to choose, however, constraints related to money, hardware, citizenship, can dictate access. Privacy data helps gatekeepers, however, anonymity poses issues related to not being able to identify yourself.

Transformation: Privacy becomes irrelevant. Facial recognition is 99.7% capable replacing physical and digital security keys, integrating with a publically funded non-lethal drone surveillance system, and enabling retail (rewards) programs designed for broad consumer compliance. MR spaces are equally public in nature. Individuals seeking anonymity must go through great lengths i.e. short packing internet browsing enabled by FireFox 3k Edition, or equally elaborate offline practices. We will also look at the Alternative futures in the context of (a) education (and rhetoric), (b) data legislation, (c) auxiliary/ampyfing technologies, (d) wealth inequality, and (e) global social justice.

Solutions Mindset

The objective of foresight work is not to predict the future. The purpose of foresight work is to balance passive and active strategies.

Passive strategies allow us to understand where reality may diverge and to position ourselves on a path that gives us the flexibility to gentilly pivot into the reality the emerges. As the future reveals itself, organization that have positioned themselves to response gracefully have the best chance of adapting.

Active strategies are used to identify desirable future worlds to then pull ourselves towards them. By understanding potential realities, organizations can identify the critical moment that make a specified reality more likely and can work towards those goals.

Both passive and active strategies must be executed in tandem. A firm that is merely reactionary will never have the advantage of being first. Likewise, a firm that disregards the randomness of nature and forges ahead full steam can get utterly crushed by cold hard reality.

Foresight: Scenario Planning and Futures Thinking is most successful is a iteratively. No map once made is perfect. In a map is almost certainly outdated the moment it is finalized because terrain and key components positioned on that terrain are most certainly changing.

Solutions Space

Addiction and the Dopamine Economy (Screen Time)

Can Mixed Reality applications and tools render the population addicted?
How can Mozilla design an experience that encourages moderate use?

Machine Ethics and Algorithmic Biases (Sophia AI talks about Women Empowerment)

Can Mixed Reality applications and tools create a non-discriminatory experience for all its users?
How will Mozilla prevent the AI failures of Google and Microsoft?

Data Control and Monetization - Roomba Alexa marriage?